CIDCM Publication: Peace and Conflict 2001

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Date: Thu, 7 Jun 2001 15:03:49 +0300 (EEST)
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Subject: CIDCM Publication: Peace and Conflict 2001

From: MINELRES moderator <>

CIDCM Publication: Peace and Conflict 2001

Center for International Development and Conflict Management

Peace and Conflict 2001 
A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements and

Ted Robert Gurr
Monty G. Marshall
Deepa Khosla


.. a world more peaceful than at any time in the past century. 

MOST REGIONS OF THE WORLD became more secure in the late 1990s. The
turbulence that accompanied the end of the Cold War was largely
contained by the end of 2000, although serious armed violence persists
in parts of Africa and Asia. This report documents three positive
trends which, if they continue in the first decade of the new century,
will establish a world more peaceful than at any time in the past

- The number and magnitude of armed conflicts within and among states
have lessened since the early 1990s by nearly half.
- Conflicts over self-determination are being settled with ever
greater frequency, usually when ethnic groups gain greater autonomy
and power-sharing within existing states. 
- Democratic governments now outnumber autocratic governments two to
one and continue to be more successful than autocracies in resolving
violent societal conflicts. 

The challenge is to sustain these positive trends. They result from
concerted efforts to build and strengthen democratic institutions in
post-Communist states and in the global South, and to negotiate
settlements of revolu-tionary and ethnic conflicts. The end of the
Cold War freed up political energies and material resources for
institutional reform and constructive management of conflicts. But the
energies and resources invested in peacemaking have limits. Any or all
the positive trends could be checked and, in some places, reversed by
these three obstacles.

- Virulent armed conflicts persist in parts of Eurasia and Africa and
have the potential for metathesis into neighboring states. 
- New and transitional democracies everywhere are at risk of reverting
to autocracy. 
- Lack of economic development undermines democ-ratic institutions and
breeds violent conflict. 

The Peace and Conflict Ledger, which begins on p.2, rates 160
countries on six positive and negative factors. 

- Thirty-three red-flagged countries, most of them in Africa and
Central Eurasia, are at serious risk of vio-lent conflict and
instability for the foreseeable future. 
- The ledger shows that all Western and Latin America democracies
except Peru and Guatemala have high capacities for managing societal
conflicts and maintaining stable institutions. 
- Most post-communist states also are likely to man-age societal
conflicts. The exceptions include Russia, Bosnia, and Croatia, each
with a mix of stabilizing and destabilizing factors. 
- Problem states in Asia and the Middle East include U.S. allies
Pakistan and Egypt in addition to con-flict-plagued states such as
Afghanistan, Algeria, and Tajikistan. 
- A half-dozen new democracies such as Bangladesh and Mozambique have
good prospects for future stability despite their limited resources
and bad neighborhoods. 


1. Introduction 

2. The Peace and Conflict Ledger: Country Rankings of Conflict and
Peace-Building Capacity in 2001 
TABLE 1. The Peace and Conflict Ledger 2001 

3. Global Trends in Violent Conflict 
FIGURE 1. Global Trends in Violent Conflict 1946-1999 
FIGURE 1. Trends in Violent Political and Ethnic Conflict 1946-1999 
FIGURE 3. States Experiencing Warfare, 1946-1999 
FIGURE 4. Regional Trends in Magnitudes of Violent Societal Conflict 
FIGURE 5. Global Warfare by Level of Societal Capacity, 1946-1999 

4. Self-determination Movements and Their Outcomes 
TABLE 2. Armed Conflicts for Self-Determination and their Outcomes,
FIGURE 6. Trends in Armed Conflicts for Self-Determination 1956-2000 

5. From Autocracy Toward Democracy 
FIGURE 7. Global Trends in Democratic, Autocratic, and Transitional
RegimES 1946-1999

6. Policy Implications: 
Toward a Sustainable World Order of Peaceful and Democratic Societies 

7. Appendix 
TABLE 3. Major Armed Societal Conflicts 1995-2000 
TABLE 4. Armed Self-Determination Conflicts and their Outcomes
TABLE 5. Other Self-Determination Conflicts in 2000

Department of Government and Politics
University of Maryland
0145 Tydings Hall
College Park, MD 20742
Tel.: (301) 314-7703
Fax: (301) 314-9256

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